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Model Construction and Estimation

Construction, institutions and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa

Paul Alagidede and Jones Odei Mensah
The construction sector in developing countries has propelled economic growth in the most recent period, yet analysis of growth performance has failed to take this into account. This article is a comparative analysis of the relationship between the construction sector and aggregate output for a...
Jul 2016
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Estimating a Phillips Curve for South Africa: A Bounded Random Walk Approach

Alain Kabundi, Eric Schaling and Modeste Some
In this paper we estimate a Phillips curve for South Africa using a bounded random walk model. Central bank credibility, the slope of the Phillips curve, the natural rate of unemployment and the central bank’s in‡ation target band are time-varying. We …find that the slope of the Phillips curve has...
Dec 2015
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Trade Linkages and Business Cycle Co-movement: An Empirical Analysis of Africa and its Main Trading Partners using Global VAR

Emilie Chanceline Kinfack and Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
This paper assesses the extent of trade linkages and shock transmission between African economies and its main trading partners, namely China, Europe and the United States (US). Using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, the paper investigates how shock transmission between Africa and its...
Apr 2015
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Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations in South Africa

Alain Kabundi, Eric Schaling and Modeste Some
This paper examines the relationship between in‡ation and in‡ation expectations of analysts, business, and trade unions in South Africa during the inflation targeting (IT) regime. We consider inflation expectations based on the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) quarterly survey observed from 2000Q1...
Feb 2014
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Time-Varying Parameter in the Almost Ideal Demand System and the Rotterdam Model: Will the Best Specification Please Stand Up?

William A. Barnett and Isaac Kalonda-Kanyama
This paper assesses the ability of the Rotterdam model and of three versions of the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) to recover the time-varying elasticities of a true demand system and to satisfy theoretical regularity. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we nd that the Rotterdam model performs better...
Mar 2013
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Fiscal regime changes and the sustainability of fiscal imbalance in South Africa; a smooth transition error-correction approach

Samuel S. Jibao, Niek Schoeman and Ruthira Naraidoobr
In addition to the conventional linear cointegration test, this paper tests the asymmetry relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure, by making a distinction between the adjustment of positive (budget surplus) and negative (budget deficit) deviations from equilibrium. The analysis uses...
Jul 2011
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