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Working Papers

Eg. "Apr 2020"
Publication

The Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Weather Shocks: Evidence from Tanzania

Ermias Gebru Weldesenbet
We examine whether early-life exposure to rainfall shocks has a long-term impact on health, education, and the socioeconomic statuses of individuals in rural Tanzania, where livelihoods heavily depend on rain-fed agriculture. We use a unique panel of data from a Kagera Health and Development Survey...
Apr 2022
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Publication

Climate Change and Child Health: A Nigerian Perspective

Eduard van der Merwe, Matthew Clance and Eleni Yitbarek
The detrimental effect of climate change on health is becoming an essential topic of economic research and policymaking. The negative impact of rising temperatures and extreme weather events on children’s health outcomes and their human capital is especially concerning. This study investigates the...
Jun 2022
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Publication

The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme

Roy Havemann, Henk Janse van Vuuren, Daan Steenkamp and Rossouw van Jaarsveld
We use a unique dataset comprising over a million trades and quotes to assess the impact of the unexpected announcement of a bond purchase programme by the South African Reserve Bank on intraday market liquidity, yields and pricing volatility. Our dataset details the timing and order details of...
Mar 2022
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Publication

Revisiting the accuracy of inflation forecasts in Nigeria: The oil price-exchange rate-asymmetry perspectives

Kazeem Isah, Abdulkader Cassim Mahomedy, Elias Udeaja, Ojo Adelakun & Yusuf Yakubua
Motivated by the distinctive paradoxical nature of the Nigerian economy as the only OPEC oil-exporting economy that yet depends heavily on the importation of gasoline, we are compelled to re-examine the accuracy of the oil-based augmented Philips curve model in the predictability of inflation...
Feb 2022
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Publication

Big data forecasting of South African inflation

Byron Botha, Rulof Burger, Kevin Kotze, Neil Rankin, and Daan Steenkamp
We investigate whether the use of machine learning techniques and big data can enhance the accuracy of inflation forecasts and our understanding of the drivers of South African inflation. We make use of a large dataset for the disaggregated prices of consumption goods and services to compare the...
Feb 2022
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Publication

Contagion across Financial Markets during COVID-19: A Look at Volatility Spillovers between the Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets in South Africa

Chevaughn van der Westhuizen, Reneé van Eyden and Goodness Aye
The onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) and previous crises have heightened interest in the interaction of stock market and exchange rate volatility. This paper aims to investigate the interdependence and volatility transmissions between the stock and foreign exchange markets for...
Feb 2022
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Publication

Does the uptake of multiple climate smart agriculture practices enhance household savings, food security and household vulnerability to climate change? Insights from Zimbabwe

Boscow Okumu, Herbert Ntuli, Edwin Muchapondwa, Gibson Mudiriza and Alfred Mukong
Climate change and variability poses a significant hindrance on agricultural productivity. The adverse effects are particularly concerning in many African countries that rely more on rainfed subsistence agriculture for livelihood. The promotion of climate smart agriculture technologies as a pathway...
Jan 2022
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Publication

Measuring and Testing a Modified Version of the South African Financial Cycle

Malibongwe C Nyati, Christian K Tipoy and Paul F Muzindutsi
This study reports on measuring and testing of a Composite Financial Cycle Index (CFCI) as a modified version of a South African Financial Cycle (FC). This is achieved through the adoption of thirteen monthly financial time series indicators observed over the period 2000M1 to 2018M12. In this...
Oct 2021
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Publication

Government Religious Preference and Intrastate Conflict

Eduard van der Merwe, Carolyn Chisadza and Matthew Clance
Understanding the causes and consequences of conflicts continues to be an important contribution to the economic development literature, particularly the mechanisms that can reduce civilian deaths. We contribute to understanding attacks on civilians and the spillover effects by analysing the impact...
Aug 2021
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