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PE webinar 11 may
Have you ever wondered how sensitive the South African Rand is to shocks in other currencies? Instead of debating the relative volatility of the rand or the factors influencing this volatility,...
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BTD course
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Samnet 2
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Covid MP
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Upcoming Events
Webinars:
- Tuesday May 11, 4-5pm (CAT): Tim Kohler (UCT), “COVID-19 and the labour market: Estimating the causal employment effects of South Africa’s national lockdown"
Structural Constraints on the Economy, Growth and Political Economy
- Monday 17 May, Nathan Nunn (Harvard University), 'Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa'
SAMNET Virtual Workshop: 28 - 30 June
Fiscal Policy and Fiscal-Monetary Interdependence in South Africa
Fiscal policy and fiscal-monetary policy interdependence are central for the macroeconomic stability of South Africa and its future development and growth. The South African Macroeconomic Network (SAMNET) announces an international workshop to explore current research in the area. South African and international researchers are invited to submit papers strictly related to the topic of the workshop.
Please email [email protected] and [email protected] for paper submission, deadline is on 04th June.
Featured Policy Papers
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Sailing into the Wind: evaluating the (near)future of Monetary Policy in South Africa
This paper evaluates the main challenges facing South African monetary policy. We focus on three main issues: the external environment, the growth potential of the economy and its fiscal balance. The external environment will remain uncertain and volatile and South Africa monetary policy should...Read moreApr 2021
Latest Working Papers
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Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change and Conflict in Africa
We consider the effects of climate change on seasonally migrant populations that herd livestock – i.e., transhumant pastoralists – in Africa. Traditionally, transhumant pastoralists benefit from a cooperative relationship with sedentary agriculturalists whereby arable land is used for crop farming...Read moreMay 2021 - publication
The effect of cigarette price changes on smoking prevalence by gender: the case of South Africa
South Africa successfully reduced smoking prevalence by substantially increasing tobacco excise tax and therefore real cigarette prices between 1993 and 2010. Tobacco market structure changed in 2010 following the entry of local tobacco companies and the introduction of cheaper cigarette brands...Read moreApr 2021 - publication
Income Convergence in Southern Africa: A Nonlinear Time-Varying Coefficients Framework
This article investigated income per capita convergence in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) over the period 1980-2017 in a non-linear time-varying coefficients framework. The findings of the study suggested no overall income convergence in the SADC region, but evidence supporting the...Read moreApr 2021 - publication
Estimates of bank-level funding costs in South Africa
We develop a new dataset of bank-level balance sheets data to estimate bank-level funding costs. These estimates are useful for monitoring of funding pressures and other risks to the banking sector as well as understanding the impact of prudential regulations and market conditions on the...Read moreMar 2021 - publication
Understanding the behaviour of house prices and household income per capita in South Africa: Application of the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag model
Homeownership by the lower and middle-income households is crucial to create wealth, particularly for South Africa with high levels of economic and wealth inequality. However, scholarship has paid little attention to how income affects the affordable housing market segment despite its systemic...Read moreMar 2021
Featured Policy Bulletin
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Call for Papers: Ways towards green and reliable power supply in South Africa
Read moreFollowing the President’s 2021 SoNA speech and recent debates on the strategic planning of power supply, ERSA invites you to submit short policy articles on, but not limited to, the following topics:
- Renewable energy vs nuclear power plant ...
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Policy Bulletin 04: Electricity reforms: Experience and approach
Read moreSouth Africa has been experiencing electricity shortages since 2008. Load shedding is taking place even at the moment, despite a large contraction in economic activity due to the Covid-19 crisis. It is time to reform the electricity market and breakdown Eskom’s vertically integrated monopoly. An...
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Policy Bulletin 03: Macroeconomic policy options for a savings constrained economy: the case of South Africa
Read moreEconomic growth requires delivering a credible fiscal consolidation plan that shifts spending towards investment in infrastructure, human capital accumulation and a environmentally sustainable economy. Fiscal policy has to move first, reducing risk...
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Policy Bulletin 02: Reflections on Aspects of Public Finance and Fiscal Policy in South Africa
Read moreAfter the COVID-19 crisis is over, South Africa will face a fiscal mountain that looks insurmountable. Many of the problems experienced in the public finances originated outside of the fiscus and have to be addressed at source, neither fiscal discretion, nor fiscal rules or any...
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Policy Bulletin 01: A fair price for economic modelling? Transparency Required
Read moreThe principle of transparency is the only way that policy makers can understand the limitations of a model and use its outputs effectively to inform policy. In absence of this transparency, there is no accountability and claims cannot be tested. The first ERSA policy bulletin discusses how to...
Featured Policy Briefs
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Assessing inflation targeting and its communication
It is less onerous to achieve policy objectives when they are clear, credibly implemented and appropriately communicated, all of which reduces uncertaintyRead moreNov 2019 - publication
Relating public and private remuneration
The study explores remuneration patterns in South Africa between 2000 and 2017, with a focus on the relationship between public- and private-sector earnings. Although remuneration is likely to increase over time in both sectors, this does not necessarily mean these increases are related to each other.Read moreNov 2019
Latest Conversations
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Mon, 03 May 2021
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Thu, 29 April 2021
It is not often that a country has an opportunity to allocate windfall government funds. Between the external pressure to stabilize our debt burden after the unexpected pandemic and the internal...
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Thu, 15 April 2021
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Thu, 18 March 2021
In our second podcast with Dr Daan Steenkamp, a lead economist at the South African Reserve Bank, we delve further into how nowcasting works and discuss the latest research regarding the suite of...
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Fri, 05 March 2021
After the challenges raised by Covid-19 and the increasing risks concerning South Africa’s fiscal sustainability, there were three objectives that the Finance...
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Thu, 18 February 2021
Joining ERSA’s host in this podcast is Isaah Mhlanga, a Chief Economist at Alexander Forbes. Together they discuss expectations for the upcoming 2021 Budget...
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Fri, 04 December 2020
In this podcast, ERSA’s host speaks to Dr Biniam Bedasso about Public Finance Management, which plays a significant role in reducing inequality in an economy. You may be familiar with the Public...
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Mon, 30 November 2020
After its sovereign debt crisis in 2011, Italy experienced its worst recession since World War II. With the labour market heavily dependent on the manufacturing sector and facing decreasing...
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Wed, 11 November 2020
During the past week the buzz word has been ‘voting’, given the nail-biting US elections that have recently taken place. In this podcast, ERSA’s host speaks to Dr Biniam Bedasso who is an expert...
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Mon, 26 October 2020
With the unprecedented level of uncertainty in the economy, the ability to adapt has never been more important. This is especially true in the world of forecasting. In this podcast, ERSA’s host is...