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An issue often overlooked in many discussions is that of exports and trade in the South African economy. But with a downward trajectory over the past 20 years having indirectly cost our general...
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Latest Announcement
Economic Research Southern Africa has the pleasure to announce the appointment of Mr Matthew Simmonds as Executive Director. Matthew has extensive experience in economic policy. He was responsible for the Budget and Public Finance portfolios in his role as a deputy director-general at the National Treasury. While at the International Monetary Fund, Matthew supported member countries with fiscal analysis and the development of fiscal frameworks. In his new role, Matthew will be responsible for expanding ERSA’s activities, developing stronger links with policy makers and building on the current portfolio of training activities.
We would like to express a deep appreciation and thanks to the outgoing Founding Executive Director Professor Johannes Fedderke for his unwavering commitment to building ERSA over the years. Johannes has been the driving force behind ERSA’s success and will remain involved in ERSA and support the new Interim Executive Director.
Upcoming Events
Covid Project Discussion: International perspectives and South Africa’s trade policy
The discussion will be based on two papers: Covid-19 and Lockdown Policies: A Structural Simulation Model of a Bottom-Up Recession in Four Countries by Sherman Robinson, Stephanie Levy, Victor Hernández, Rob Davies, Raul Hinojosa, Sherwin Gabriel, Channing Arndt, Dirk van Seventer, and Marcelo Pleitez and Understanding South Africa’s trade policy and performance by Matthew Stern and Yash Ramkolowan.
Improving South Africa’s international competitiveness requires both an understanding of the constraints facing the manufacturing and export sectors as well as a novel approach to trade negotiations.
Register here to book your space!
- Tuesday 17 August 2021 4-5pm (CAT): Caroline Weber (U of Kentucky), "Getting into the Weeds of Tax Invariance"
Featured Policy Papers
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Sailing into the Wind: evaluating the (near)future of Monetary Policy in South Africa
This paper evaluates the main challenges facing South African monetary policy. We focus on three main issues: the external environment, the growth potential of the economy and its fiscal balance. The external environment will remain uncertain and volatile and South Africa monetary policy should...Read moreApr 2021
Latest Working Papers
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Human Capital and the Timing of the First Birth
I construct and partially characterize the solution of a life-cycle model of fertility choice and human capital accumulation. Because children take time to raise, women face a trade-off between between lifetime earnings and childbearing. The model implies that (i) earnings must drop discontinuously...Read moreJul 2021 - publication
Differential corporate taxation and inter-asset investment distortions in South Africa
South Africa has since the 1990's actively reformed its corporate tax policy to stimulate investment in various assets and industries. While the investment impact of corporate taxation has been evaluated in various studies, no effort has been made to assess the potential inter-asset distortions due...Read moreJul 2021 - publication
Corporate taxation and firm-level investment in South Africa
This paper investigates the responsiveness of firm-level investment to corporate tax changes in South Africa over the period 1999 to 2012. The study exploits rare changes in corporate tax policy to assess the responsiveness of firm-level investment among Johannesburg Stock Exchange listed non-...Read moreJun 2021 - publication
Fiscal risks and their impact on banks’ capital buffers in South Africa
South Africa’s fiscal balances have deteriorated significantly over the last decade, while the economy has been recording disappointing economic growth rates even prior to the COVID-19 crisis. In this paper, we estimate a series of equations using the Arellano and Bond (1991) estimator to test how...Read moreJun 2021 - publication
‘Learning to export’ and ‘learning to innovate’: Revisiting the relationship between innovation and exports in African firms
This paper examines the relationship between innovation and export performance for African firms. We use Tobit simultaneous equation full information maximum likelihood (FIML) model with selection on a crosssectional dataset from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys for 28 African economies. The...Read moreMay 2021
Featured Policy Bulletin
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Policy Bulletin 04: Electricity reforms: Experience and approach
Read moreSouth Africa has been experiencing electricity shortages since 2008. Load shedding is taking place even at the moment, despite a large contraction in economic activity due to the Covid-19 crisis. It is time to reform the electricity market and breakdown Eskom’s vertically integrated monopoly. An...
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Policy Bulletin 03: Macroeconomic policy options for a savings constrained economy: the case of South Africa
Read moreEconomic growth requires delivering a credible fiscal consolidation plan that shifts spending towards investment in infrastructure, human capital accumulation and a environmentally sustainable economy. Fiscal policy has to move first, reducing risk...
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Policy Bulletin 02: Reflections on Aspects of Public Finance and Fiscal Policy in South Africa
Read moreAfter the COVID-19 crisis is over, South Africa will face a fiscal mountain that looks insurmountable. Many of the problems experienced in the public finances originated outside of the fiscus and have to be addressed at source, neither fiscal discretion, nor fiscal rules or any...
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Policy Bulletin 01: A fair price for economic modelling? Transparency Required
Read moreThe principle of transparency is the only way that policy makers can understand the limitations of a model and use its outputs effectively to inform policy. In absence of this transparency, there is no accountability and claims cannot be tested. The first ERSA policy bulletin discusses how to...
Featured Policy Briefs
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Assessing inflation targeting and its communication
It is less onerous to achieve policy objectives when they are clear, credibly implemented and appropriately communicated, all of which reduces uncertaintyRead moreNov 2019 - publication
Relating public and private remuneration
The study explores remuneration patterns in South Africa between 2000 and 2017, with a focus on the relationship between public- and private-sector earnings. Although remuneration is likely to increase over time in both sectors, this does not necessarily mean these increases are related to each other.Read moreNov 2019
Latest Conversations
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Tue, 03 August 2021
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Thu, 15 July 2021
At a time when tensions are rising due to growing inequality and unemployment, ERSA’s host...
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Thu, 24 June 2021
Only three times in the last century has monetary policy been re-evaluated and tested to its limits. This global pandemic has forced many central banks around the world to use non-conventional...
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Fri, 14 May 2021
It is just over a year since South Africa had to succumb to what was considered one of the most draconian national lockdowns, and as expected, we have noticed a...
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Mon, 03 May 2021
Have you ever wondered how sensitive the South African Rand is to shocks in other currencies? Instead of debating the relative volatility of the rand or the factors influencing this volatility,...
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Thu, 29 April 2021
It is not often that a country has an opportunity to allocate windfall government funds. Between the external pressure to stabilize our debt burden after the unexpected pandemic and the internal...
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Thu, 15 April 2021
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Thu, 18 March 2021
In our second podcast with Dr Daan Steenkamp, a lead economist at the South African Reserve Bank, we delve further into how nowcasting works and discuss the latest research regarding the suite of...
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Fri, 05 March 2021
After the challenges raised by Covid-19 and the increasing risks concerning South Africa’s fiscal sustainability, there were three objectives that the Finance...
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Thu, 18 February 2021
Joining ERSA’s host in this podcast is Isaah Mhlanga, a Chief Economist at Alexander Forbes. Together they discuss expectations for the upcoming 2021 Budget...