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South African Modelling Network (SAMNET) Virtual Workshop:New Developments in Macroeconomics - Exchange Rate, Expectations, Target and Instruments of Monetary Policy

Event

South African Modelling Network (SAMNET) Virtual Workshop:New Developments in Macroeconomics - Exchange Rate, Expectations, Target and Instruments of Monetary Policy

Venue
Online (Zoom)
Mon, 29 November 2021 to Wed, 01 December 2021

In the 3rd SAMNET workshop we are going to explore innovation in macroeconomic analysis of interest for monetary policy making.

This workshop is going to be slightly different to last time, as it will be followed by a policy round table discussion between expert panellists. Over the past year, macroeconomic policy has been tested with unprecedented levels of uncertainty. In this Workshop we will explore the latest developments in macroeconomic policy:

  • What are the latest developments regarding the relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic expectations?
  • How can these market expectations be measured?
  • What insights can we learn from Apple products?
  • How responsive are capital flows to the credit cycle?
  • And, are the inflation target and monetary policy instruments still appropriate for our monetary policy framework?

The Virtual Workshop will be chaired by Nicola Viegi (University of Pretoria, South Africa) and will take place over 2 days from 29 November to 30 November between 2h00pm and 5h00 pm CAT.

Click to register for the workshop (Day 1 and Day 2).

Matthew Simmonds (ERSA) will chair a policy roundtable discussion on the Monetary Policy Framework explained in the Workshop. Here, our panellists will talk debate developments regarding the inflation target, and the instruments of Monetary Policy in South Africa. This will take place between 2h00pm and 4h00pm CAT on 01 December. Both events will be hosted live on Zoom.

Click to register for the round table discussion (Day 3).


 

Keynote Speakers:

Christiane Baumeister  - Robert and Irene Bozzone Professor, University of Notre Dame.

Measuring Market Expectations

 

Prior to joining the Economics Department at Notre Dame in 2015, Christiane Baumeister was a Principal Researcher in the International Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. Her research interests include empirical macroeconomics, energy economics, applied time series econometrics and monetary economics. She has published scholarly articles in a number of journals including Econometrica, the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, the International Economic Review, the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics and the Journal of Applied Econometrics. She is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research and has been a visiting research scholar at the International Monetary Fund, the Banque de France, the University of California at San Diego, and the NIPE research center in economics.

 

Vania Stavrakeva - Assistant Professor of Economics, London Business School.

A Fundamental Connection: Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Expectations

Her research interests include international finance, macroeconomics, macro-finance and financial sector regulation. She holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University. She has extensively studied exchange rate determination and how monetary policy, macroeconomics news and beliefs impact exchange rate movements. Within these topics, she has examined questions such as: How does monetary policy impact exchange rates and what changed over the Global Recession and why? What is the source of heterogeneity of beliefs and positions in forex derivative markets? What makes a currency a safe heaven currency – i.e. it appreciates during bad times?

Programme

Preliminary Agenda*

Day 1

                                    Monday, November 29, 2021                    

14.00 – 15.00

Keynote 1:

Vania Stavrakeva - London Business School

A Fundamental Connection: Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Expectations

 

15.00 – 16.00

Bernard Njiri (US)

Financial Openness and External Adjustment in Emerging and Frontier Market Economies

 

Cyril Dell’Eva (UP)

Foreign Exchange Imbalances : A Markov-Switching Approach for South Africa

 

16.00 – 17.00

Neo Ralefeta (Wits)

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on South Africa’s Trade Balance

 

Rick Walker (US)

Apple Product Prices, the Law of One Price and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

 

* Time and order of presentation can be changed on the day

 

Day 2

 

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

14.00 – 14.15

Introducing

SAMNET Macro-Models Platform

 

14.15 – 14.45

Monique Reid(US) and Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University)

Firm Level Expectations and Macroeconomic Conditions – Underpinning and Disagreement

 

14.45 -16.00

Keynote 2:

Christiane Baumeister -  University of Notre Dame

Measuring Market Expectations

 

16.00 – 17.00

David de Villiers  (US)

Excess financial elasticity: The asymmetric effects of heterogeneous capital flows on the credit cycle

 

Vincent Dadam (UP)

Hopeless Hysteresis: Investigating Unemployment Persistence in South Africa

 

* Time and order of presentation can be changed on the day

Day 3

 

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Policy Panel Discussion

 

Monetary Policy Framework in South Africa

Quo Vadis?

 

14.00 – 16.00

 

Introduction

 

Nicola Viegi(UP)

Monetary Policy in the Highveld: Instruments and targets of monetary policy in South Africa

 

Panel Participants

 

Chris Loewald – South African Reserve Bank

Yolande Smit – National Treasury

Mamokete Lijane – ABSA Bank

Michael Sachs – Wits University

 

Chair

 

Matthew Simmonds – ERSA

* Time and order of presentation can be changed on the day