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Policy Papers

publication

Sailing into the Wind: evaluating the (near)future of Monetary Policy in South Africa

Tumisang Loate, Ekaterina Pirozhkova and Nicola Viegi
This paper evaluates the main challenges facing South African monetary policy. We focus on three main issues: the external environment, the growth potential of the economy and its fiscal balance. The external environment will remain uncertain and volatile and South Africa monetary policy should...
Apr 2021
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publication

Group identity in fairness decisions: discrimination or inequality aversion?

Carolyn Chisadza, Nicky Nicholls, Eleni Yitbarek
This paper investigates issues of decision time and race in distributive fairness decisions in South Africa. We conduct a dictator game where we gather data on transfer amounts and time taken for decisions, where dictators are paired with a series of partners with whom they either share or do not...
Sep 2020
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publication

Shaping macroeconomic outcomes

Chris Loewald
By early 2016, financial market participants had become increasingly critical of unsustainable current account deficits and low, unbalanced growth in many emerging economies. In response, adjustments have occurred (or are in process) in a wide range of countries – including Russia, Brazil, Mexico,...
Jul 2017
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Inflating our troubles: South Africa’s economic performance and the exchange rate

D. Fowkes, C. Loewald and M. Marinkov
South Africa’s export performance has been disappointing, and this is likely related to weak growth outcomes. We investigate the effect of the exchange rate on these outcomes, through two possible channels: its level and its volatility. We find little evidence in the literature or in our own tests...
Jun 2016
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publication

Estimating South Africa’s output gap and potential growth rate

Johannes W. Fedderke and Daniel K. Mengisteab
This paper estimates the potential output of the South African economy using several univariate filters as well as taking a production function approach. Our aim is to compare the sensitivity of the results to the different methodologies and different measures of output. We find that the potential...
Mar 2016
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publication

Stokvels as an instrument and channel to extend credit to poor households in South Africa: An inquiry

Polly Mashigo and Christie Schoeman
A stokvel can in general terms be defined as an umbrella term used to describe informal savings organisations in the African community in South Africa. Stokvels operate mainly in black areas, and have social, economic and entertainment functions (Verhoef, 2002). The aim of the paper is to...
Oct 2010
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publication

Where you live matters: Urbanisation and labour markets outcomes

Roy Havemann and Marna Kearney
Given apartheid’s legacy of irrational spatial planning it should be unsurprising that location matters for labour market outcomes. This paper attempts to quantify this effect by introducing a new urbanisation index into standard employment regressions. Utilising a multinomial logit model, it is...
May 2010
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publication

High Unemployment Yet Few Small Firms: The Role of Centralized Bargaining in South Africa

Jeremy R. Magruder
South Africa has very high unemployment, yet few adults work informally in small firms. One potential contributor to this problem is that large firms and unions can extend arbitration agreements to non-unionized smaller firms, raising wages. While local labor market characteristics influence the...
Mar 2010
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