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Policy Papers

Publication

Building a competitive and dynamic green industrial sector in South Africa after COVID-19

Tendai Gwatidzo and Witness Simbanegavi
COVID-19 gave the world a glimpse of how devastating a pandemic can be to economies and livelihoods. Climate change, given its permanence, would be far more devastating, hence the renewed efforts at the global level to mitigate climate change. South Africa, one of the dirtiest producers in the...
Jun 2021
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Publication

Addressing low labour utilisation in South Africa

Christopher Loewald, Konstantin Makrelov and Andreas Wörgötter
South Africa’s stubbornly low labour utilisation rate is an international outlier and a heavy brake on the ambitions for growth and redistribution published in various strategic policy strategies (National Planning Commission 2013). More immediately, low labour utilisation is a major obstacle to...
Jun 2021
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Publication

Understanding South Africa’s trade policy and performance

Matthew Stern and Yash Ramkolowan
South Africa’s exports have lagged behind the rest of the world over recent decades, and this has likely constrained overall economic growth. There are multiple reasons for this disappointing trade performance, including the structure of the country’s export basket (which remains dominated by...
Jun 2021
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Publication

Sailing into the Wind: evaluating the (near)future of Monetary Policy in South Africa

Tumisang Loate, Ekaterina Pirozhkova and Nicola Viegi
This paper evaluates the main challenges facing South African monetary policy. We focus on three main issues: the external environment, the growth potential of the economy and its fiscal balance. The external environment will remain uncertain and volatile and South Africa monetary policy should...
Apr 2021
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Publication

Group identity in fairness decisions: discrimination or inequality aversion?

Carolyn Chisadza, Nicky Nicholls, Eleni Yitbarek
This paper investigates issues of decision time and race in distributive fairness decisions in South Africa. We conduct a dictator game where we gather data on transfer amounts and time taken for decisions, where dictators are paired with a series of partners with whom they either share or do not...
Sep 2020
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Publication

Shaping macroeconomic outcomes

Chris Loewald
By early 2016, financial market participants had become increasingly critical of unsustainable current account deficits and low, unbalanced growth in many emerging economies. In response, adjustments have occurred (or are in process) in a wide range of countries – including Russia, Brazil, Mexico,...
Jul 2017
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Publication

Inflating our troubles: South Africa’s economic performance and the exchange rate

D. Fowkes, C. Loewald and M. Marinkov
South Africa’s export performance has been disappointing, and this is likely related to weak growth outcomes. We investigate the effect of the exchange rate on these outcomes, through two possible channels: its level and its volatility. We find little evidence in the literature or in our own tests...
Jun 2016
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Publication

Estimating South Africa’s output gap and potential growth rate

Johannes W. Fedderke and Daniel K. Mengisteab
This paper estimates the potential output of the South African economy using several univariate filters as well as taking a production function approach. Our aim is to compare the sensitivity of the results to the different methodologies and different measures of output. We find that the potential...
Mar 2016
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Publication

Stokvels as an instrument and channel to extend credit to poor households in South Africa: An inquiry

Polly Mashigo and Christie Schoeman
A stokvel can in general terms be defined as an umbrella term used to describe informal savings organisations in the African community in South Africa. Stokvels operate mainly in black areas, and have social, economic and entertainment functions (Verhoef, 2002). The aim of the paper is to...
Oct 2010
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