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Working Papers

publication

The effect of cigarette price changes on smoking prevalence by gender: the case of South Africa

Zachary Gitonga, Nicole Vellios, Corne van Walbeek
South Africa successfully reduced smoking prevalence by substantially increasing tobacco excise tax and therefore real cigarette prices between 1993 and 2010. Tobacco market structure changed in 2010 following the entry of local tobacco companies and the introduction of cheaper cigarette brands...
Apr 2021
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publication

Income Convergence in Southern Africa: A Nonlinear Time-Varying Coefficients Framework

Ntokozo Nzimande
This article investigated income per capita convergence in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) over the period 1980-2017 in a non-linear time-varying coefficients framework. The findings of the study suggested no overall income convergence in the SADC region, but evidence supporting the...
Apr 2021
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Understanding the behaviour of house prices and household income per capita in South Africa: Application of the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag model

Anthanasius Fomum Tita and Pieter Opperman
Homeownership by the lower and middle-income households is crucial to create wealth, particularly for South Africa with high levels of economic and wealth inequality. However, scholarship has paid little attention to how income affects the affordable housing market segment despite its systemic...
Mar 2021
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Impact of technological progress on carbon emissions in different country income groups

Chris Belmert Milindi, Roula Inglesi-Lotz
This study examines the complex relationship between carbon emissions and technological progress in a sample of 60 countries, divided into four categories based on their per capita income between the periods of 1989-2018. For robustness purposes and due to the broad definition of technology, we use...
Mar 2021
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Reigniting Economic Growth: Lessons from three centuries of data

Roy Havemann & Edward Kerby
We estimate that since 1701, South Africa has experienced 163 years of per capita growth of more than 1 per cent a year. These expansions include 55 years of sustained per capita GDP growth of more than 3 per cent a year – windfall periods that were related to the discovery of diamonds and gold,...
Feb 2021
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Financial development and income inequality: a nonlinear econometric analysis of 21 African countries, 1994-2015

Lindokuhle Talent Zungu and Lorraine Greyling
A panel data analysis of financial inequality was conducted using the PSTR model to determine the threshold level at which excessive financial development worsens inequality. The results reveal evidence of a nonlinear effect between financial development and income inequality where the optimal...
Feb 2021
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publication

Health Inequality and the 1918 Influenza in South Africa

Johan Fourie and Jonathan Jayes
The 1918 influenza – the Spanish flu – killed an estimated 6% of South Africans. Not all were equally affected. Mortality rates were particularly high in districts with a large share of black and coloured residents. To investigate why this happened, we transcribed 39,482 death certificates from the...
Feb 2021
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Taxpayer responsiveness to taxation: Evidence from bunching at kink points of the South African income tax schedule

Neryvia Pillay
I apply the bunching methodology to South African administrative tax data over the period from 2011 to 2017 to investigate the responsiveness of individual taxpayers to changes in marginal personal income tax rates. I find significant evidence of bunching among the self-employed but no evidence of...
Feb 2021
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publication

The Effect of Colonial and Pre-Colonial Institutions on Contemporary Education in Africa

Leone Walters, Carolyn Chisadza and Matthew Clance
This paper argues that contrary to previous findings, present-day education outcomes in Africa cannot be independently attributed to colonial or pre-colonial ethnic institutions. We propose that it is instead the complementarity or contention between colonial and precolonial institutions that result...
Jan 2021
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