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Working Papers

Does household net financial wealth explain the asymmetric reaction of household consumption to monetary policy shocks in South Africa?

Eliphas Ndou
Ndou et al (2019) showed that, in absolute terms, the decline in household consumption due to the monetary policy tightening shocks exceeds the increase in household consumption, following the monetary policy loosening shocks of the same magnitude. This paper applies a counterfactual vector...
Sep 2020
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Examining the determinants of electricity demand by South African households per income level

J.A Bohlmann, R. Inglesi-Lotz
For the period 1975 - 2016, this paper examines the determinants of the residential demand for electricity in South Africa including disposable income, electricity prices, food prices as well as the impact of the 2007/08 load-shedding wave and the 2008 electricity price restructuring. Given the...
Sep 2020
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A Sequence to Reverse Poverty: Institutions, State Capacity and Human Empowerment

Sansia Blackmore and Reneé van Eyden
This paper explores the fundamental or deep causes of poverty persistence, which remains a central challenge of the modern world. In theory, rising political participation in a democracy operationalises checks on state predation and cultivates development-enabling state capacity. This did not...
Aug 2020
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Prenatal health and weather-related shocks under social safety net policy in Kenya

Silas Ongudi and Djiby Racine Thiam
Exposure to weather shocks around the time of birth has been shown to have deleterious effects on later life outcomes. In the short run, such shocks can lead to income loss, especially when households are not insured but rely heavily on rainfed agricultural activities. In the long run, however,...
Aug 2020
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The South African - United States Sovereign Bond Spread and its Association with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Johannes W. Fedderke
The yield spread of South African to United States 10 year government bonds over the last 5 years has increased substantially to levels approaching those last seen during the mid-1980s. This yield spread increase is replicated in spreads relative to long-term German bonds, as well as for the spread...
Aug 2020
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A fiscus for better economic and social development in South Africa

Francois J Stofberg, Jan H van Heerden, and Heinrich R Bohlmann
After showing that the bulk of government expenditure is unproductive, we consider the impact of an alternative fiscal policy mix in South Africa. The alternative suggests freezing the real government wage bill for five years and using the savings generated by this decision to increase spending on...
Aug 2020
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Forest commons, vertical integration and smallholder’s saving and investment responses: Evidence from a quasi-experiment

Dambala Gelo
As the result of prohibitively high transaction costs, smallholder farmers are only partly integrated into agricultural and forest commodity markets, a situation that may leave them in a lower level of development equilibrium (i.e., a poverty trap). For the most part, many users of forest commons...
Aug 2020
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Consumer Preferences for Genetically Modified Organisms in Cape Town: A Choice Experiment Approach

Benjamin Dovey and Herbert Ntuli
This paper reports a study done on Cape Town consumers, with the aim to understand how their purchasing decisions are shaped with respect to GMOs. A choice experiment approach was used to examine consumer preferences for biotechnology products in the food market. Four models were run to analyse the...
Jul 2020
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Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model

Daron Acemoglu, Victor Chernozhukovz, Iván Werning, Michael D. Whinston
We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young”,“the middle-aged” and the “old”. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for...
Jul 2020
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